I looked at this and it's the eternal problem of picking from belt. I even note it in the mod description here on the mod portal that the value for picking from belt is approximate. Though I will give you that in this case the discrepancy is very large.
For now, I have no idea how I will improve precision, or even if I can. By the way, while testing this I have also looked at the other mod's numbers and they are just as wildly off. Even worse in the most common case of inserter perpendicular to belt.
Remember, when all else fails, you can always use the measuring tool (/it-stopwatch) to measure the inserter's actual, live performance.