i had the same problem with Windows10, but with 0.2.2 factorio now starts again properly
even though the windows explorer ignores lower/upper case (and thus i need to rename a file twice to change case, eg abc -> Abcx -> Abc; else W10 thinks nothing has changed), it depends on programs (how they access directories, files, etc) whether they ignore it too. this applies especially to files that are in a zip file. thus it might even fix this error to extract the zip file to a folder and factorio would have started, LOL
btw: although many websites ignore upper/lower case in URLs, the mod portal doesn't and thus i recently had a link on another mod to a 404 page instead of to this mod, when that other mod referred to colonistarmy instead of ColonistArmy ...
